How Often Do You See the Northern Lights? Insights and Statistics
- Mar 2
- 19 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
There is always the question, "How often do you see the Northern Lights?" This question is not easy to answer. There are no reliable statistics readily available, and forecasts can be quite unpredictable. Most of what we know comes from observations by various operators who conduct tours over a vast area or from computer-generated data.
Seeing the Northern Lights with your own eyes is different from having a night out that looks good on paper. Computers can be misleading. You need to be out in the field to gather accurate data.
If you could teleport between the north and south of the country in one night, you would have a much higher chance of seeing the lights almost daily. However, that's not how it works in reality. You start from your accommodation, and then luck plays a significant role. Factors like solar activity, the magnetic field, and weather conditions all come into play, along with the guide's experience.
Observations from Tromsø
This unscientific statistic below documents Northern Lights sightings made on tours from Tromsø or lights seen in the city (for instance, while relaxing in a hot tub by the sea).
Some operators claim a success rate of over 90%. Personally, I have seen the lights on 27 out of 30 days, reaching up to 97%. Over the years, I have maintained an 8 to 9 out of 10 success rate, but I haven't officially documented it. It's more of a gut feeling. This doesn't account for the days I stayed home due to bad weather, unsafe conditions, sick children, social commitments, or other assignments.
As the statistics from the 2022/23 season suggest, when someone claims a success rate of nearly 100%, they are likely either exaggerating or misrepresenting their data. Another possibility is that they only report on the days they operate tours, ignoring cancellations due to poor weather.
These informal "findings" are based on observations made by me and others in the Tromsø area. This area is quite large, with a driving range of about three hours inland and two hours toward the coast. Some operators venture further, but consider how much time you want to spend in a vehicle when booking. Tours lasting 10-12 hours still don’t guarantee sightings.
Gathering Accurate Data
Since one guide can't be out every night, compiling a statistic that collects data from every evening of the month involves checking social media from various operators, reviewing different websites, and looking into blogs from active tour operators. It may also require making a few phone calls.
As we approach the "solar maximum" in 2025, it will be interesting to see if there is a statistical change in the number of days we see the lights. This season has been promising so far, but like the stock market, predicting the future is challenging. As the climate shifts to milder winters, we might see more Auroras, but they could be obscured by clouds, rain, or snow.
Disclaimer: These statistics are mostly for fun. Their scientific value is debatable, but we've done our best to gather accurate data from reliable sources that have been in the field during the observations. This statistic could indicate how many nights you might see the Aurora if you were out every evening for a month. As you will discover, they vary significantly from year to year and aren't particularly useful for long-term planning.
A Few Explanations
Observed Northern Lights
Northern Lights are either observed on tours or reported by other operators in the Tromsø area. This means they are documented with photos or seen firsthand.
No Observed Northern Lights
No one, as far as I have been able to find, has seen or taken photos of the Northern Lights in the Tromsø area on the night in question. This does not necessarily mean that there haven’t been any sightings elsewhere. This is an uncertain variable in the statistics. If information becomes available later, the statistics will be updated.
Kp-Index
A Kp-index of 2 or more typically indicates a theoretical chance of seeing the Northern Lights in the Tromsø area, as shown in the illustration above. Tromsø is situated almost directly under the Northern Lights oval. Even Kp values under 1 suggest a theoretical chance if you visit. The higher the Kp, the further south and north it is possible to observe them. A Kp between 2-4 is common and provides beautiful displays at these latitudes. A high Kp does not guarantee sightings but indicates magnetic disturbances that can produce them.
Cancelled Due to Weather
Some nights are simply unsafe for travel. Some operators may proceed regardless, but we have not experienced any serious accidents on Northern Lights tours. When the National Weather Service recommends staying indoors, we usually cancel, but operators make their own decisions based on experience and the need for income. Choose reputable operators when booking, and if you're unsure, contact the official tourist information in Tromsø.
Northern Lights Season
The Northern Lights season lasts from around September 10 to April 10. It is possible to observe the lights as early as August 20 and as late as mid-April. Capturing both the sunset and the Northern Lights in one photo can be quite spectacular. However, it is not possible to see the lights from mid-April through the summer (May - July) due to the Midnight Sun. Most operators conclude their season in the first week of April.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask below, follow our FB group, or write us an email.
Northern Lights Statistics
Northern Lights Statistics for 2025/2026
Season summary 2025/2026
With the season now behind us, it's time to look at the numbers as a whole. Across the full 2025/26 season — from the first sightings in September through to the final tours in early April — we observed the Northern Lights on 187 out of approximately 229 possible nights, giving us a season-wide success rate of around 82%.
That is a significant step up from the two previous seasons. The 2024/25 season came in at roughly 70%, and 2023/24 at 72%. And if you go back to the 2022/23 season, the average was closer to 33% — about one in three nights. The difference is stark, and the main driver is no mystery: we are currently near or at the peak of Solar Cycle 25, and the increased geomagnetic activity has simply given us more raw material to work with.
That said, the weather played its part too. The midwinter months — January and February in particular — were unusually cold and stable, with long stretches of clear skies both along the coast and inland. Those conditions turned what could have been a good season into a great one. November was another standout, continuing its trend as statistically one of the strongest months of the year.
What the numbers also confirm — and this is worth keeping in mind when planning a trip — is that no season is the same. January ranged from 51% in 2024/25 to 87% this year. September swung between 50% in 2023 and 90% in 2025. Long-term averages and solar forecasts can point you in the right direction, but there are no guarantees, and the aurora will always keep you guessing.
We'll be back out under the sky from mid-September. See you then.
April 2026 (11 of 17 nights / 65%)
April is always a special — and bittersweet — month. The aurora season typically comes to a close around the 10th of April, when the sky simply no longer gets dark enough for reliable observations. Most operators, ourselves included, wrap up their last tours right around that date, and the remaining nights in the month are counted here only for completeness. If you're planning a trip specifically for the Northern Lights, April is therefore a risky month unless you're arriving in the very first days.
That said, the 11 sightings we were able to confirm across 17 nights speak to just how active this solar cycle has been. Some of the most memorable moments of any season happen in early April — imagine catching the aurora against a sky that still glows faintly from the setting sun, with snowfields reflecting the green light below. It's worth the gamble if your timing is right.
March 2026 (22 of 31 nights / 71%)
March delivered a solid and largely satisfying end to what has been an exceptional midwinter. We observed the Northern Lights on 22 out of 31 nights, giving us a success rate of 71% — comfortably above March 2025, which came in at 63%. As the days grow noticeably longer and the sun returns in earnest, the window for aurora hunting shortens each evening, but the lights themselves can be truly spectacular against the twilight — on several nights this month, guests were treated to green dancing across an orange and pink horizon.
Weather was a mixed bag, as March often is in the Arctic. A few nights were lost to cloud cover and shifting conditions, and the roads inland kept us on our toes more than once. Still, with a bit of persistence and experience, we found clear skies more often than not. The strong solar activity that defined the earlier part of the season continued to show up when we needed it most.
February 2026 (25 of 28 nights/89%)
February 2026 continued what has been an outstanding winter for Northern Lights viewing in Tromsø. Auroras were observed on 25 out of 28 possible nights, meaning we only missed the lights on three evenings throughout the entire month. While a few nights were weaker, with softer arcs and shorter appearances, several evenings were truly spectacular — featuring strong geomagnetic activity, fast-moving curtains, bright coronas overhead, and intense green displays stretching across the Arctic sky.
Weather conditions played a crucial role. February was largely characterized by cold, stable, and clear winter weather, providing consistent viewing opportunities both along the coast and inland. These steady conditions allowed for a high success rate and many memorable experiences for guests and locals alike.
As we move into March, however, the pattern appears to be shifting. Forecasts suggest a milder period ahead, with slightly higher temperatures, more cloud cover, and an increased chance of rain. While the aurora season is still very much alive, the stable midwinter conditions that defined much of February may gradually give way to more variable early spring weather.
Going into the last month of proper night sky, as the Aurora season usually ends by the first week of April.
January 2026 (27 of 31 nights/87%)
January 2026 was an exceptionally strong month for Northern Lights viewing in Tromsø. Increased solar activity contributed to frequent and intense auroral displays, including a powerful geomagnetic disturbance around January 21 that produced vivid, dynamic curtains of green and occasional red hues across the Arctic sky. Thanks to cold and stable winter weather, skies were often clear, creating excellent viewing conditions both in the city and in surrounding coastal and inland areas.
In total, auroras were observed on 27 out of 31 nights during the month — a remarkable level of consistency. This marks a significant improvement compared to January 2025, when the lights were visible on only 51% of the nights. The combination of heightened solar activity and prolonged periods of clear, stable weather made January 2026 one of the strongest midwinter Aurora months in recent years.
December 2025 (24 out of 31 days/77%)
December is the month where we can experience everything from snowstorms to milder periods and ice-cold clear skies. That is more or less what happened this year as well.
Many tours have ventured inland, and driving conditions have been challenging for all of us. The best indicator is that we see many rental cars off the roads, trying to find the Auroras on their own. Even with challenging conditions and not the best activity from our friend The Sun, we have managed to experience the lights on 3 out of 4 days on average, more or less exactly the same amount as the previous two seasons.
November 2025 (27 out of 30 days/90%)
We are now approaching the high season in Tromsø. Plenty of visitors, higher hotel and restaurant prices, and normally a high demand for tours. Sadly, something has changed in the city — we see more foreign companies, larger buses, and a price war on tours to see the lights. The prices have dropped so low that you can’t even get a burger and a beer for the same amount of money, which is not sustainable for anyone in the long run. Lowering prices to these levels also means lower quality, and we see more guests complaining about the service provided when they receive a biscuit on an 8-hour tour, guides who just arrived in Tromsø a week ago, and only one free photo. Sorry for the rant!
On the other hand, the Northern Lights and the weather have been kind to us, and we are up a few days compared to November 2024. Many tours have taken us to the border with Finland, and we have had a few nice days on the coast. Even on some of the toughest days, we have managed to find lights in larger and smaller gaps. It has been a lot of work that has paid off in the end. So far this season, we have a 100% hit rate — a combination of luck and experience.
October 2025 (24 out of 31 days/77%)
October brought us another strong month under the Arctic sky. Despite periods of challenging weather and long stretches of cloud cover along the coast, we still managed to see the Northern Lights on 24 out of 31 nights — a success rate of about 77%.
It was a month of constant change: shifting winds, fast-moving weather fronts, and sudden clearings that revealed breathtaking aurora displays. On several nights, we traveled inland and even across the border to Finland in search of clear skies — and were rewarded with unforgettable moments when the clouds finally opened.
From calm green arcs over the fjords to powerful bursts lighting up the northern horizon, October delivered variety and beauty in equal measure. Considering the weather challenges, maintaining such a high success rate is a strong sign of both persistence and a very active aurora season so far.
August and September 2025
We’re excited to share our Northern Lights stats for August & September 2025!
In August, the aurora season is just kicking in — officially from around August 20th — yet we had 4 nights with Northern Lights, and even a bonus sighting on August 14th. That gives us 5 nights in total. In September, we missed the Aurora on just 3 nights — meaning the skies danced for us the rest of the month. On two of those nights, the show was modest rather than spectacular, but it was still a spectacle well worth the tour.
Let’s put that in perspective: August has 31 nights, but only from the 20th onward is it realistic to expect auroras due to the light conditions. If we count from August 20–31 plus the 14th (i.e., roughly 13 nights), then 38% of the evenings had auroras. In September, with 30 nights total, auroras were visible on 27 nights, which equals 90% of the nights. This is as good as it gets!
Compared with last year, the 24/25 season had September at about 77% success and September in the 23/24 season at only 50%. This year, we’re well ahead, with a much stronger start to the season. It’s an encouraging indication for the months ahead (even though it is a bit like the stock market when trying to predict the success rate), suggesting we may be riding a wave of unusually high aurora activity this season.
Stay tuned — if this early momentum holds, we may see one of our best seasons yet!
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Northern Lights Statistics for 2024/2025
The statistics are updated at the beginning of the following month.
Summary of the 2024/2025 Season
This visual shows that October was the most successful month for aurora sightings (27 nights out of 31), while only 3 out of the 10 possible nights in April produced Northern Lights. Overall, we saw auroras on 156 of the 222 nights in the period, meaning about 70% of nights featured the Northern Lights. This is slightly down from the previous season, which had a total of 72%.
April 2025 (3 of 10 days/30%)
With only about 10 nights of reasonable darkness, it is unfair to count the whole month. I did not conduct any tours myself this month due to other arrangements and the Easter holiday. The three days with confirmed sightings from other operators are what I have for this month. If you decide to come in April, you could be in for some of the most beautiful Northern Lights (imagine sunset, an orange sky, and green dancing). Since the evenings are shorter, the chances go down compared to longer evenings in the middle of the polar night.
March 2025 (19 of 30 days/63%)
The sun is finally back, and we are looking at about six weeks left of the Aurora season. Typically, this month is better and more stable than January and February, but this year has seen a lot of snow.
February 2025 (19 of 29 days/65%)
The weather was a challenge in February as well, with very shifting conditions. We welcomed the light during the day, and there was more to see for guests taking advantage of the daylight. The shifting weather conditions are a challenge for businesses doing dog sledding and snowmobiling as well. 65% is not bad, and we were kept on our toes with quite nice lights more or less every other day.
January 2025 (16 of 31 days/51%)
January started as the perfect Northern Lights month but ended a bit like last year, with mild weather and clouds extending well into Finland. We saw many cancellations due to driving conditions and snow.
December 2024 (24 of 31 days/77%)
Merry Christmas and welcome to the high season in Tromsø. This is the month when the restaurants and airports are full of guests from all over the world. December 24 ended only one Northern Lights evening short of last year, and we had some great nights out with strong dancing lights.
I can already reveal that 2025 has started well :-)
November 2024 (25 of 30 days/83%)
Just a quick comment having gone through half of the month. We have faced a few rough patches so far in November. A lot of shifting weather has made driving conditions challenging. Even through the cloudy weather, we have been able to see the Northern Lights more or less daily, and many tours have ventured toward, and into Finland. The last four days have been without any lights.
With a few days of bad weather in the middle of the month, it ended well with nice evenings under the lights.
October 2024. Great Month (27 of 31 nights/87%)
A great month for Northern Lights hunters out of Tromsø. The weather was favorable, and we had several days with clear skies and few clouds. October has turned into the best month statistically over the last three years, without any guarantees, of course. The month ended with challenging driving conditions due to snow and rain, but only for a couple of days.
September 2024. What a Start (23 of 30 nights/77%)
The Northern Lights season in the Tromsø area has had a very good start, already much better than the previous two years. This might be a combination of both better weather conditions, Solar Equinox, and the beginning of the Solar Maximum expected during 2024/25. August is not part of the statistics since this traditionally only includes a few nights from around the 20th. This year we saw them in the northeastern part of Norway on the 18th, visible to the naked eye!
September marks the proper beginning of the Northern Lights season in Tromsø, with the return of longer nights and clearer skies after the summer’s Midnight Sun. The period from late August through September is ideal for witnessing the Aurora Borealis, as the geomagnetic activity that causes these vibrant light displays becomes increasingly visible. The early season brings a higher chance of witnessing the auroras against the backdrop of dramatic autumn colors, with fewer tourists than in the winter months, adding to an even more peaceful experience.
We have had nice weather and a few nights with a Kp 6+ that provided a beautiful show. With late summer temperatures in the beginning of the month, some evenings were spent outdoors in t-shirts and sneakers, but don’t worry — winter is coming.
Northern Lights Statistics for 2023/2024
The statistics are updated at the beginning of the following month.
Summary of the 2023/2024 Season.
This graph highlights that November 2023 was exceptionally active (29 nights out of 30), while January 2024 saw auroras on fewer than half of the nights.
March & April 2024. A Nice Ending to a Busy Season (28 of 37 nights)
As this is written, we have already reached April 8th, and as far as I can see, the last tours in the Tromsø region were done yesterday. We welcome more light and the midnight sun in about a month. It has been a very busy season for everyone doing Northern Lights tours in the area, and a new record in regards to the number of guests visiting Tromsø.
March and April were good months. The weather has been reasonably stable, and the beginning and end of the period have given us some very nice lights both along the coast and further inland. There was one day with cancellations in the middle of the month due to bad weather.
All in all, we saw Northern Lights on 72% of the tours going out of Tromsø (from September to early April) according to the data I have managed to gather from my own tours and excursions/excursion photos made public by others. Seven out of ten evenings altogether is not bad, although a bit lower than the traditional "statistics" that say 9 out of 10! Since this is the first year we do these statistics, we have no data to compare the 23/24 season with until this time next year.
Bookings for next season have already started — the next season begins on September 15, and bookings are open.
February 2024 - A Pretty Average Month (21 of 29 nights).
February ended with temperatures above average and a day or two with higher temperatures than southern Europe. Some might find this pleasant, but it is not ideal for cloud cover — and driving conditions tend to get slippery. It is not unusual for Tromsø to experience a week of mild weather in February, but this year it feels like spring is arriving early. Fighting with cloud cover has also sent many tours on longer drives than average trying to locate stars in smaller and bigger gaps — but compared to January, we have been able to find clear skies in the area after some effort.
The Northern Lights themselves have not been too strong during February, but we have been able to capture some nice photos on tour, and the beginning of March has been very nice so far with a welcoming CME on the 3rd. Only a month or so left of the 23/24 season, hoping for a spectacular finish.
January 2024 - Weather-Related Cancellations and Cloudy Conditions (15 of 30 nights).
With a total of 8 canceled nights in January, it must be considered a month with a lot of weather. This is not uncommon, as we usually experience at least a few days with mild weather and poor driving conditions, combined with a high avalanche risk in the areas where we typically operate. One of the arguments against Tromsø hosting the Olympic Games in 2014 and 2018 was that both January and February can have "unstable" weather over a few days, which might ruin the experience. The latter part of January also saw a winter storm named "Ingunn," bringing storm and hurricane-strength winds that halted outdoor evening events.
Some companies will still go out on days when the chances of sliding off the road are higher than seeing the lights, and there are always discussions in the guide community. At "The Arctic Moments," we have decided to heed the official warnings and weather service before deciding whether to go or not.
On 7 nights, we were unable to find operators that saw the lights, despite going out due to cloud conditions or low activity. This means we operated on half the nights in January.
Even though the weather was challenging, there were still a few nice shows this month, like the one early in January outside Tromsø.
December 2023 - A Bit Frustrating (25 of 31 nights).
December passed with many clear skies and a very good start, but it ended with less Northern Lights activity than we hoped for. Guides get just as frustrated as guests when there is a perfect sky, but nothing happens. Being a natural phenomenon, most people understand that there are no guarantees. Even on the best nights, we might return home with nothing more than the smell of bonfire, a starry sky, and a beautiful beach to remember.
That meant a lot of waiting around the bonfire for most groups that came to Tromsø. The end of December was unusually cold for the year, with temperatures in Tromsø dropping to minus 15 degrees Celsius, and even colder in the inland areas south of the city.
The Christmas week was also very crowded, with several hundred guests in the same areas between Christmas and New Year, and many large buses on the roads. My recommendation would be to arrive earlier if you are after the lights, although Tromsø is a beautiful place with all the Christmas lights and holiday spirit.
A new year and new adventures await guides and guests!
November 2023 - Can Hardly Get Any Better (29 of 30 nights).
November has treated us well with Northern Lights, and we only had one night where we didn’t have any positive observations for tours starting in Tromsø. There was also one night when we and a few other companies decided to cancel due to heavy winds and avalanche danger in the area — yet some non-local companies chose to go and managed to see some lights that evening too.
Parts of November had very strong lights visible even in southern Norway, an event that made it to the national news. We even had some nights with visibility as far south as Germany. We enjoyed several Corona Mass Ejections (CMEs), a few solar storms, and experienced the term "Cannibal" storm for the first time. This occurs when the first storm is "eaten" by the next one, creating a stunning light show.
All in all, November has been the best month this season. Hopefully, it continues into the busy season of December as well.
October 2023 (25 of 31 nights).
October has been a really good month in the Tromsø area, and operators are happy to take guests out on tour with high chances of having a great experience. Overall, there were only 5 days in October where we couldn’t find any documented observations — likely due to weather and/or low activity. This month, I also checked the Kp index for all the days, and we ended up with a Kp2+ around 70% of the days — a positive sign indicating we see light even on days with low Kp.
Looking at the graph below, we had a success rate of roughly 80%, but only a Kp2+ on around 70% of the days. This is positive since it means that we are seeing lights even on days with low activity.
September 2023 (15 of 30)
September is the first proper month for Northern Lights hunting each season. Normally, there is a slow start around September 10, and we see more guests by the beginning of October. It is a lovely time to be in the Arctic, with vibrant colors and mostly stable weather. That said, this is typically the first month of snow in the north.
In September 2023, we observed Northern Lights 50% of the nights, and the Kp-index was 2+ for 70% of the nights based on information from the National Weather Service (YR) and Spaceweather Live. There were no cancellations due to weather or unsafe conditions.
This month in 2023 had 2 more nights of observed Northern Lights compared to the same month in 2022. The season typically starts around September 10, but it is possible to catch a glimpse of good evenings with activity from late August.